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Showing posts tagged elections
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Local elections – national repercussions
Local elections are normally fairly tedious affairs, more about street lighting and trams. They become more interesting in Naples where refuse collection (or lack of it) is a major issue, but wherever they’re held, they are an indication of what might happen in the next elections, but just an indication, a small blip on the barometer. But Berlusconi’s Italy is not “normal” as we well know and with 13 million Italians voting on Sunday and Monday there is a lot more at stake than a few city councils, writes James Walston in his most recent blog post on ItalPolBlog with Walston.
He examines and explains the significance of these “local” elections, in the light of these fundamental questions: “As ever, since 1994, the first question is what is Berlusconi’s position; every election since then has in practice been a referendum on one man. The second is how well are the two main coalitions doing (and to a lesser extent, how well is the so-called Third Pole, the centre-right opposition led by Gianfranco Fini). And thirdly, what are the relative strengths of the parties that make up the left and right.”
And he concludes: “Even if [the centre-Right canidate in Milan Letizia] Moratti were not to win on the first round, or, heaven forbid, actually lose, Berlusconi is unlikely to resign as Massimo D’Alema did when the centre left lost badly in the 2000 regional elections. ‘I was elected by the Italian people,’ is the refrain we have often heard, ‘and D’Alema was not.’ The most we can expect is perhaps a reshuffle.”
Picture from Il Fatto Quotidiano.
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Humble pie for Berlusconi
“The Milan elections were always about much more than who was going to be the next mayor,” writes James Walston in his latest blog post. “For more than a month Silvio Berlusconi campaigned as if his premiership and personal reputation depended on it. He stood as a candidate for the council hoping to win more personal preference votes than his 52,000 in the last local elections in 2006. In Italy’s double ballot system (where if no one wins an outright majority in the first round, the two most voted candidates go to a run-off two weeks later), not winning at the first round was to be taken as a slap in the face. As the votes were counted, it was clear from the beginning that the outgoing mayor, Letizia Moratti had not won a clear majority and that there would be a second round. Much worse for the centre-right, as counting continued, we saw that not only was she second, but she had lost by a large margin….”
After a detailed analysis of the results, Walston concludes: “The drama will start now as the negotiations for the second round begin; candidates campaigning for themselves but also trying to persuade their former rival candidates support them. Will Grillo declare for the PD? I doubt it. Will the second centre left candidate and the PD in Naples give De Magistris full support? Yes, but grudgingly. Who will Fini and the other centrists support in Milan? They’re already bickering. Most important, what will the Northern League do to the government if they lose Milan…?”
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The Power of Referendums
Referendums are an arcane branch of politics, writes James Walston in his latest blog post; electoral systems even more so – combined they are normally as stimulating as a valium-camomile cocktail. But once again, Italy is different and yesterday’s news that the promoters of an election reform referendum managed to gather more than 1.2 million signatures is news indeed, and of much more interest than Berlusconi’s latest Montenegrin “fiancée”. If passed the referendum would abolish the very unpopular electoral law (nicknamed “porcellum”, a multiple pun I won’t try to translate, but the sense is close to “pigsty”) in which parliamentarians are in practice nominated by party bosses.
Having explained the mechanics of the referendum in Italy, how it has been used and to what effect in the past, Walston concludes:
If the referendum passes, Italy will revert to a mixed system with 75% of deputies elected in single member, UK or US style constituencies/districts and 25% from fixed party lists. Voters will have a much bigger voice in who represents them and will at least know who it is. But for the moment, it is all politicians who are considered fair game, a bit like lawyers in some other countries. On that score, have you heard the latest Sicilian politician joke? The Regional Government paid one of its employees 200 hours overtime in August… to clear snow. And, you’re right, it’s not a joke.
Read the whole of the blog post here.
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Pigs’ Dinners and Rolling Pins – the Constitutional Court Verdict on the Electoral System Referendum
Over the last week there was a crescendo of rumour and counter-rumour on the Constitutional Court’s likely verdict on whether to allow two referendums to change the Italian electoral system, writes James Walston in his latest blog post. The referendums were to be another moment in process of changing the whole political system. Now the Court has spoken and the answer is No. We will know the precise legal reasoning in a fortnight when they publish the sentence but in the meantime the political consequences are already being faced.
Walston explains how the current electoral system - the “pigs’ dinner” - works, and how the previous system - the “rolling pin” - shaped up, and along the way he clarifies why a huge number of Italians - more than twice the minimum number required - signed the petition for the referenda which are now being denied them.
We have already some fiery statements from Di Pietro and will have many more, Walston concludes. From the other politicians and parties, there are earnest calls for dialogue and everyone will put forward worthy proposals but without the risk of having to fight a referendum campaign next spring, the heat is off. Prime Minister Monti has made it very clear that electoral reform is definitely not on his agenda so that there is even a chance that Italians will once again have a pigs’ dinner once again for their 2013 general election unless popular pressure can persuade the politicians to act quickly.
Read the whole of Walston’s blog post here.
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Nine months to Elections. First Election Watch Blog.
By my calculations, allowing for Easter, Pesach, Liberation Day (25 April) and May Day, the Italian elections should be on 14-15/4 or 21-22/4 or maybe 28-29/4, writes James Walston in his latest blog post. If I’m right, then we have nine months before Italians go to the polls to elect a new Parliament and, possibly, a new government. All elections are crucial for someone and they all are hyped as make-or-break-contests. More often than not, the results are banal and change little and there is a serious danger that the 2013 poll will be both make-or-break and change little.
Walston provides a detailed and helpful guide to the various options, the state of play, and the probable developments we can expect. But he warns: All bets are open. The actual alliances will depend on what sort of electoral system they will use, probably more than the actual policies they propose or which leaders they chose.
And he promises: So over the next nine months I will write an election watch blog every two or three weeks (more often as things get hotter) looking at the electoral system debate, proposed policies, choice of leaders, influence outside of Europe and opinion polls, plus, of course the debate over who will take over as President, one of the first jobs for the new Parliament.
Read the whole of Walston’s blog post here.
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Election watch 4. All aboard the Monti bandwagon
It should not have been a surprise, writes James Walston in his latest blog post, to hear Mario Monti say publically that, if asked and if necessary, he would continue in government but that he was not going to stand for office.
From the moment he was appointed almost a year ago, there has been speculation about what he would do after the elections. At first, the presumption was that he would “go up the hill”, the Quirinale, and take over from President Napolitano whose term ends in May next year, but over the last six months there has been increasing speculation that he would continue as prime minister.
Walston analyses the pros and cons of a possible Monti v.2 next Spring from the point of view of the various political parties and currents which, on both a national and a regional level, all have a stake in the fallout from Monti’s possible continuation in office in Palazzo Chigi.
But he resists the temptation to make any hazardous predictions at this early stage, concluding instead that [m]eanwhile, with typical irony, Parliament is addressing a new anti-corruption law, unconcerned that a good number of them might fall victim to a serious measure. So much better to look for the possible winner and his bandwagon.
Read the whole of Walston’s blog post here.
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Monti bis - a question from Greece
In his latest blog post, James Walston writes: I received this question from Irini Mitropoulou of To Vima, a Greek broadsheet: “Do you think that he will stay on for a second term? Who would want him to stay, and who wouldn’t? Is there any reliable political alternative? And what is the prevalent mood in the italian society? Are the italian people willing to make more sacrifices,«for the good of the country»?”
This was his answer:
Monti’s strength is as a leader who is not directly linked with any political party or leader. He is manifestly a Catholic, a limited free-market liberal centrist but if he puts his name to any of the parties which match that definition, he loses his independence and that strength.
Walston analyses the various political groupings’ stance towards - or against - the idea of a Monti-bis, a Monti government v.2, and concludes:
If there was a serious proposal, [Italians] probably would accept further sacrifices but no one has managed to convince them - and every scandal makes it less likely that they might be convinced. They know they don’t like “politicians” and half of them say they will not vote.
Read the whole of Walston’s post here.
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Elections Watch 5: Disintegrating regions
Every day brings new revelations about scandals in the cities and the regions, writes James Walston in his latest blog post. Walston lists the scandals shaking Italy from south to north, observing that the only difference with the 1992 scandals is that this time most of them are local but the vision of structures crumbling is the same.
Yet national politicians meanwhile carry on almost as if nothing was happening, he complains. An anti-corruption bill gathers dust in Parliament and it is not even the Draconian measure that the parliamentarians’ critics would prefer.
The party system is reeling, he says, and the irony of all these elections is that opinion polls continue to show that Italians have less and less confidence in the system and half still will not vote. So we risk having elections and no voters.
While the other Italy appears on the streets demonstrating against job losses and in support of public schools, Walston point out, Monti and his government mediate and project optimism but time is getting short.
Read the whole of Walston’s blog post here.
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The American elections seen from Italy
On the foreign policy front, Italians should be very concerned about the results of the American elections, writes James Walston in his latest blog post. Syria is in the middle of a civil war and Lebanon is once again on the brink of one. The Mediterranean is a small place and what happens in one corner affects the others, especially when there are Italian peacekeepers in the region. Obama’s policies are cautious and interlocutory while despite a moderate Mitt in the last debate, Romney says he wants the US to be respected once again. A change in American policy will change the reality for Italy. A Romney victory would increase Italian security risks.
Walston analyses the relevance of the US elections for Europe in general and Italy in particular, but he has to admit that the immediate economic problems facing Italians trump any concern about the future US leader. To the east, Greece sinks into chaos and to the west, Spain is on the verge of seeking help from Brussels. Italy might be next. With these problems at the door, the American debates over job creation over there, seem very detached from the real, Italian, world.
And he concludes: If Obama wins again, it will be business as usual. If Romney were to win, it would take some time for the real consequences to sink in.
Read the whole of Walston’s post (which also appeared in openDemocracy) here.
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Election Watch 6. Berlusconi unleashed and Sicilian elections
At first glance, writes James Walston in his latest blog post, Berlusconi’s four year sentence for tax fraud last week and the results for the Sicilian elections on Monday should have cleared the air and changed the broader picture. Instead, they change remarkably little. As before, confusion reigns
Walston analyses the effects of Berlusconi’s spectacular U-turn on the national political scene. And he also looks closely at the regional politics in Sicily (where absenteeism won the highest score), in Lazio and in Lombardy (where voting should take place in February). Between now and then, he predicts, there will be frenetic activity in the parties trying to decide who will be the candidates for president.
And he concludes: These are busy times with no easy predictions
Read the whole of Walston’s blog post here.
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So, what next?
The election next spring will see a newly sober Italy set against its more turbulent recent past—with unpredictable results, says The Economist.
In an enlightening and helpful round-up of the complex and mystifying back-biting and in-fighting on the Italian politica scene as the primaries loom, the magazine states:
It is hard not to feel some sympathy for Mario Monti, Italy’s prime minister. He was in the Gulf this week, trying (with some success) to persuade oil-rich investors that Italy had turned over a new leaf, when the spotlight was suddenly turned back to an affair at home as lurid as any in Italy’s recent, scandal-ridden past. And his predecessor, Silvio Berlusconi, was once again at the centre of it.
And The Economist concludes:
As has been the case ever since he took office, Mr Monti’s biggest challenge is not of personal credibility, but of democratic legitimacy. Mr Alfano declared this week that “you can’t govern a country without asking the opinion of its citizens”. But that is precisely what Mr Monti has done for the past 12 months. He may yet be called on to do the same again.
E grazie ad Italia dall’Estero, c’è un’ottima traduzione.
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Monti’s Move
On the Italian chessboard a year of positioning play is moving rapidly towards a new phase, writes James Walston in his latest blog post.
On Thursday, Berlusconi said that he was going to stand again and his party secretary Angelino Alfano said that they would withdraw PdL support from the government… but responsibly, after passing the budget which is before Parliament. Berlusconi reckoned that way he would be able to condition the timing of elections and the rhythm of the campaign. It would be him who decided when to pull the plug and use the moment most likely to give him a boost.
Check.
But the real game has barely begun, says Walston, and Monti has come back with a lighning move. Walston anayses the possible future moves, the options open to Black and White, and concedes that we’re still a long way from the endgame but with the election date likely to be at the end of February, we’re moving towards it.
And he concludes: Berlusconi-Nero fiddling as Rome burns is an old image for cartoonists but is still a valid one but Monti’s counter move shows that the game will be a long and tough one; fascinating for chess buffs but of life and death importance for Italians and those who live in Italy. It’s not just a game.
Read the whole of Walston’s post here.
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The Silviosaur or Sunset Boulevard on Tiber
A tactless remark from a cabinet minister was the cue for Silvio Berlusconi to storm back onto center-stage, writes James Walstonm in his latest blog post. The consequences for Italy and for the rest of Europe are likely to be dire.
Corrado Passera, the suave and experienced Minister for Economic Developmen, had said that “A return to the past would not be good for Italy”. The remark was an explicit reference to Berlusconi’s PdL-led government which stepped down in November last year. The immediate reaction was a salvo of criticism from PdL leaders followed by Berlusconi’s promise to come back.
Walston explains the background to Berlusconi’s U-turn, both inside and “outside the realm of psychopolitics”, and provides a detailed analysis of the consequences for the various political parties in the field, the main players in those parties, and ultimately for the Italian people.
And he concludes: Unless the old triumvirate of President Napolitano, the European Union and the markets can persuade Berlusconi to step back, the elections will probably be in March and will be colored by economic uncertainty and bitterly divisive internal politics.
Read the whole of Walston’s post here.
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Dreams & Nightmares
Politics is about power and policy, the two motivations for anyone to get involved, writes James Walston in his latest blog post. You go into politics because there are issues you want to push whoever is pushing them or because you just like the taste and trappings of power, whatever the issues. There are few politicians who are wholly one or the other but most veer one way and from what we have seen so far, Mario Monti is a man of policy and principle.
Walston provides a helpful analysis of the alternatives facing Prime Minister Mario Monti, and concludes that he has the choice between a dream and a nightmare:
Monti’s choice lays bare the left-right divide in Italy and shows it to be much more a question of which gang you belong to rather than serious policy differences – there are indeed very serious policy cleavages but they cut across the existing parties rather than divide them.
Read the whole of Walston’s post here.
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